
In 1988, Kirk Gibson hit one of the more memorable home runs in a World Series game. It was the bottom of the ninth. Gibson, injured to the point that he could barely walk, came in to pinch hit for the Dodgers. A future Hall of Famer for the A's was on the mound. Gibson guessed back door slider. He guessed right and hit a walk off home run.
As an A's fan, I watched that game with quite a bit of interest. Sometime around then, the movie based on Bernard Malamud's novel The Natural came out, which has an amazing home run sequence. Someone put the two together, and Kirk Gibson's hit became The Natural or Roy Hobbs (the main character in The Natural) home run in baseball lore.
If you watch the replay of that hit today, it's clear that something doesn't compute. Gibson should be pathetic at the plate. His legs should be useless for driving a pitch. I don't care if he guessed right on that slider, no normal human being could have clobbered that ball some 380 feet with just his arms. But Kirk Gibson wasn't normal. He took a steroid, cortisone, so he could, at least for one at bat, use his legs. Kirk Gibson wasn't cheating by the way. Cortisone use was and is legal in MLB.
Was Gibson using other steroids at the time? No one was testing. His body broke down at a young age, 31. He was a big guy, but not huge. I'm guessing the answer is no. At the time not many players were using steroids. By the 1990s, though, a lot were. How many is a lot? We can get a vague estimate by looking at a simple measure of power, the number of home runs hit per ball game, over time.
From 1989 to 2004, the number of home runs hit per game increased by over 50 percent. The graph above shows a smoothed version of the time history. Home runs per game were essentially stable in quantity from the 1960s to the early 1980s. Then something happened to cause home runs to rise. I don't know exactly what it was. Neither does anyone else. But one thing about that era was that talent levels were low. Expansion had increased the number players in MLB. But potential black players were increasingly avoiding baseball. Latin American scouting wasn't as prominent as it is today either. The lack of uniform talent created a situation where major league hitters were increasingly facing minor league caliber pitchers.
By the late 1980s, the Latin pipeline was fully established. Talent levels were more uniform. My guess is that this change helped to cause the drop in home runs per game at the end of the 1980s.
Then something else happened. We all know what that something else was. A lot of players started to use steroids and other performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). For some of them, their home run production increased by about 80 percent. If this level of performance increase applied across the board, the increase in home runs (assuming that the increase was all PED related) suggests that about 70 percent of all offensive players were juiced during the steroids era.
That number is similar to the claims made by Jose Canseco, one of the fathers of steroid use in baseball. Another admitted user, the late Ken Caminiti, stated that about 50 percent of players used PEDs. This number seems reasonable, probably more reasonable than 70 percent. Other factors besides PEDs increased home run production. The 1990s saw the construction of newer ballparks designed for more home runs. Players - steroid users and non-steroid users - began to abandon the age old wisdom that weight lifting hurts ballplayers by adversely affecting their flexibility. The ball might have been juiced as well.
Others put the estimate of steroid users lower. I remember reading estimates of around 25 percent usage from Dave Duncan, long time pitching coach, and a similar estimate from long time manager, Lou Piniella. These two have a vested interest in the reputation of MLB and their estimates are probably too low. But let's call 25 percent a lower bound.
Here's another gage of steroid use. Over the last 10 years or so, 10 players have reached the 500 home run plateau. Seven of them are known to have used PEDs. Put all of these estimates together and somewhere between 25 and 70 percent of all offensive ballplayers used steroids during the 1990s to the early 2000s.
The current news is filled with slow leaks of the 100 or so ballplayers who test positive to steroids in 2003. But the number of PED users was undoubtedly many times more than 100 back then. The question isn't who used steroids. The more appropriate question may be who didn't.
Imagine being a ballplayer back then. Baseball is a very competitive and lucrative sport. If you were a minor leaguer or MLB player back then, you would have seen guys with ripped physiques hitting monstrous home runs. You would have seen former singles hitters like Bret Boone become All Stars. If you had wanted a career in the major leagues, what would you have done? Your boss was doing nothing to discourage steroid use. The owners wanted to see more home runs. The fans wanted more home runs. It's a no brainer.
A lot of players thought this way back then. I don't blame them. Imagine a tax system with no enforcement. Imagine laws without a police force. Without enforcement, rules are meaningless.
I happen to not like steroids in baseball. It's not because I'm concerned with "the integrity of the game." It's because I like games where defense and pitching dominate. Once you add PEDs to the equation, most games turn into atrocious, silly affairs where even great pitches get hit for dingers. Before the steroids era, coaches used to tell their pitchers, "Throw strikes. Babe Ruth is dead." In the 1990s, PEDs created a lot of unlikely Babe Ruths.
Let's go back to that game in the 1988 World Series. It's the bottom of the ninth. The Dodgers are down by one. One man is on. There are two out. Gibson limps to the batter's box to pinch hit. The count goes to 3 and 2. The A's future Hall of Famer, Dennis Eckersley, throws a back door slider. Gibson guesses back door slider.
But lets change one thing. This time Gibson isn't on cortisone. What happens? It isn't hard to figure out. Gibson swings and hits a lazy fly ball to right field. Game over. There is no magic. In a steroids-free world, gimpy ball players don't hit home runs.* That's baseball the way it should be. Cortisone made a hero out of Gibson. It did the same thing for Willis Reed in the NBA finals of 1969. The PED era of the 1990s made a lot more heroes and created a lot of cartoon games full of improbable feats. And way, way more than 100 players were involved in these cartoons.
If you look at the graph above, you can see that while home runs per game tailed off a bit after mandatory testing, the numbers remained historically high. Why is that? Well of course players do lift weights routinely nowadays, but no more so than in 2002. And of course, ballparks are more home run friendly, but the changes have been minor.
What's left? It's probably true that a good number of players still are using. They just aren't getting caught. It's likely that the number of users is significantly smaller than it was in 2002. How many still are using? My guess, and it's just a guess based on the graph above, is that the number is somewhere around 15 percent. The steroids era is to some degree likely still with us. It's been twenty years since coaches routinely told pitchers, "Throw strikes. Babe Ruth is dead." My guess is that they'll never be able to say such a thing again.
*In a steroids-free world, Jose Canseco doesn't hit a grand slam off a good pitch to give the A's four runs in that game either.